Rappler’s Intellectual dishonesty

Here is another example of Rappler’s intellectual dishonesty – this time aided by Students from UP. 

In this article titled “EXPLAINER: How serious is the PH drug problem? Here is the data“, Students from UP showed some interesting statistics. The whole thesis of the article is this: The Duterte administration is exaggerating the extent of the drug problem to support a brutal war on drugs. They support this by providing some “context” to the drug problem in the Philippines. 

Let us see if their conclusion is supported by the same data they are using. 

Context 1 – The extent of the drug problem.

The first context they wanted to establish was this: the latest official estimate of drug users in the country is 1.3 Million as of 2012. They then criticize Duterte for over estimating the problem when he declared in his SONA that there were about 3.7 million drug addicts in the country now. How can they conclude that Duterte is overestimating the drug problem today (2016) when the latest data they present is way back in 2012? They seem to assume that it is impossible for the numbers to go from 1.3 million to 3.7 million in 4 years. But in the same article they argue that the numbers went down from 6 million to 1.3 million in 10 years. In their analysis it is possible for 4.7 million to quit drug use in 10 years but not possible for 2.4 million to start using drugs again in 4 years. To them it is easier for people to quit drugs than to start using drugs (either for the first time or relapse into addiction). They also forget the fact that drug treatment relapse rate is estimated to be about 40-60{560c5a826b9d0f79d9056f2e452d35fface599afff45834a592fa1a3f7fd1a74}, which means a lot of people who quit drugs have a strong tendency to relapse into using it again. 

Context 2 – The previous administration was on track.

The second context they tried to establish was that there were more drug raids in 2014 compared to 2004. They said that according to the data, 2014 actually saw the highest number of raids and arrests which supports the idea that the PNoy administration was actually doing its job to fight drugs. Let me show you what the data looks like:

What I noticed right away was the fact that the data actually goes as far back as 2001/02 but Rappler and the UP Student’s analysis started in 2004. Why they did this becomes obvious when you look at how the numbers will change their conclusion. If we analyze the data starting 2001/02 we are forced to ask what was the government’s policy back then? Why was there so many drug raids, arrests and new rehab admissions? Let me refresh your memory – then President Gloria Arroyo launched a war on drugs during those years. 

Here is an excerpt of her E.O in 2001:

https://ift.tt/3bmL8Ge

Here is what she had to say about it in her SONA:

https://ift.tt/3bohEYt

What else do we remember about Arroyo’s war on drugs? That she wanted to appoint Duterte to head a task force that will enforce her war on crime and drugs. Duterte refused the appontment but worked as an adviser. If Rappler and the UP Students started their analysis in 2001/02, they would have been forced to face this reality and change their conclusion. The drop in drug raids and arrests could be a factor of two things – i. the number of people to raid and arrest plateaued after a strong surge and ii. PGMA became distracted with political opposition as early as 2004. If you remember, PGMA’s presidency was plagued with attempted coups and stiff political opposition after the 2007 mid-term election when she saw one impeachment complaint against another. Her war on drugs lost steam due to political distraction. This is what Duterte’s opponents are trying to do today. They want to create a political shit-storm so that the administration will be distracted and lose political capital to continue their war on drugs. 

As for the increase in drug raids and arrests in 2014. First, compare that to the figures in 2001/02 and their efforts look dismal. Secondly, there are serious allegations that the raids and arrests made in 2014 were aimed at consolidating the drug market in the hands of those who support politicians in power at that time. The best measure of the PNoy administration’s efforts to fight drugs will be seen when the Dangerous Drugs Board will release their survey for 2015. Given the number of people involved in drugs surrendering today, I do not think the picture will be rosy. 

Context 3 – Profile of drug users

I agree with their analysis that the profile of most drug dependents require a strong effort from the government to also focus on government sponsored drug rehabilitation. The Duterte administration is already doing this but they have to double down because I do not think they were ready for the massive number of people surrendering and needing rehabilitation. This is why I applaud the governments efforts to try to address the issue now given the limitations of the government budget. They have had to convert a military base into a drug rehab centre. The administration is also actively finding private domestic and foreign partners to help build more drug rehabilitation centres.