The US will be electing a new President soon and with that will come a possible shift in US foreign policy in Asia. I believe that Duterte’s pivot to Asia is a strategic move to ensure that the Philippines is in the best position when that US policy shift happens. The outgoing administration of Barack Obama has started a strategic pivot to Asia as a key feature of US foreign policy in Asia but that pivot has recently been put into question. The next US President will decide on whether the US pivot to Asia will continue and what shape it will take.
In this post, I will look at what a Clinton or Trump presidency will mean for US foreign policy in Asia, particularly regarding China, based on what they have said prior to and during the campaign. I will then look at how the Duterte pivot to Asia fits into whatever foreign policy shift Clinton or Trump will make in Asia.
Hillary Clinton on China
Hillary Clinton does not categorically place China as either a friend or an enemy. She has engaged with China as a partner in some issues and as an enemy in other issues. One example of when Clinton took China head on as an enemy is on the South China Sea where she said that freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is a matter of national interest to the US. This was seen by many as a direct challenge to China’s claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea. Clinton also sees China as a foe when it comes to issues of cyber-security and human rights. Clinton has also publicly shown her support for existing military alliances in Asia, particularly with Japan and South Korea. She even supports further strengthening military cooperation with existing allies and creating new ones. Clinton has also called for the end to budget sequestration for defence spending and part of her reason is to enable to US to better assist military partners in Asia. Clinton is also seen by many as more willing to commit US military troops overseas in order to project US influence. This is the side of Clinton that is antagonistic towards China and sees China as a threat. Consequently, this is also the Clinton that most Chinese hate and fear.
Despite her tough talk on some issues, Clinton does open doors for China to be a US partner. When it comes to security and economic relations, Clinton seems to be open to treating China as a strategic partner. She has called for China to be a partner in an international diplomatic effort to have North Korea stop production of nuclear weapons. She has also called for China to be part of a broad US strategy in Asia that involves multilateral institutions. Clinton also facilitated the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in 2009 opening a channel for high-level talks between US and China on issues such as economic relations, climate change, security, and development.
Given this duality in how Clinton views China it is a safe bet that Clinton’s foreign policy towards Asia will be a combination of direct pressure on Beijing by strengthening US military alliances in the region while opening up an avenue for China to be a partner and most likely through a multilateral mechanism in the region. Clinton has said that the US still has the strategic military and economic advantage over China and wants the US government to negotiate with China while they are still in a position of power. We can expect Clinton to be aggressive in revitalizing the US pivot to Asia to ensure that the US does not lose the leverage they currently have. Clinton will push for a multilateral solution to the South China Sea dispute while further strengthening US military alliances to put pressure on China – and we can expect Clinton to do this fast because people are seeing the US as losing its grip on Asia. This is where Duterte’s foreign policy fits in.
When Duterte resumed diplomatic relations with China and publicly calling out the US for past war atrocities, this was seen by many as a huge set-back to the US pivot to Asia. By showing to the US that he is willing to cut ties with them and move completely to Beijing’s side, Duterte was eroding the US leverage in the South China Sea. Of all the claimants only the Philippines has a tribunal ruling against China so if the US wants to put pressure on China in the South China Sea dispute, they need the Philippines. The US wants China to resolve the dispute through a multilateral process with the other claimants but China wants to resolve it bilaterally. The significance of Duterte’s visit to China was that it showed to the other claimants that bilateral talks with Beijing might not be that bad.
Duterte was able to get a significant amount of money from Beijing, persuaded China to allow Filipino fishermen to fish in the disputed Shoal, agreed to enhance cooperation between their respective Coast Guards and persuaded China to agree to non-confrontation when it comes to managing the dispute. To make it even more significant is the fact that Duterte never gave up any of the Philippines claims. His success in his visit to China makes bilateral talks with Beijing more attractive to the other claimants. The US option for multilateral engagement is a deal-breaker for China right now and was the main reason why China took a more assertive position in the region. What Duterte has done is that it provided other claimants a test case to follow that they can talk to China in a bilateral setting without giving up their claim. Duterte has placed the Philippines in a position where it is now indispensable for both the US and China when it comes to securing the South China Sea. The position that Duterte has taken the Philippines allows him to engage in a foreign policy of delimitation where he is able to get concessions from super powers without giving up independence. What the Philippines lacks in military superiority Duterte compensated with a smart use of his strategic diplomatic importance to the region.
Donald Trump on China
Trump has been more aggressive in his stance on China both in economic and military terms. Trump has been vocal about his desire to have current US military allies reimburse the United States for the cost of protecting them. This policy is a big blow to Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Thailand – the key US military allies in the region. If Trump wins the presidency and pushed through with this policy, these countries will abrogate on all their military alliances with the US. Trump has also openly called for Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear weapons to remove pressure from the US in controlling the threat of North Korea. Trump has also openly said that he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if faced with a threat.
Trump also wants to pursue a more aggressive economic policy towards China saying he will label China as a currency manipulator and wants to increase tariff on Chinese imports to the US. Considering the fact that the US is one of China’s biggest trade partner, a Trump presidency will have a huge impact on China’s economy. A Trump presidency is not an ideal situation for China.
If Trump does win the US presidency and follows through with his statements then China becomes an even more important military and economic ally for Asian countries. If he does force Japan and South Korea to pay for US military assistance then those two countries will have no other option but to engage with China directly. China does not have enough military power to launch a war outside its borders so the ideal situation for China is to form military alliances with former US allies who have been abandoned by a Trump presidency. I argue that a Trump presidency with its foreign policy towards China and Asia will turn the US as a common enemy that will revive the need for a military alliance in the region. The main reason why SEATO dissolved was the absence of a common enemy amongst the treaty partners. If Trump becomes president and turns the US into a more dangerous military adversary, then China and the rest of the Pacific rim countries might be forced to consolidate their military power against the US. This might force China and Japan to support the creation of a multilateral defense treaty similar to SEATO but this time to counter the US threat. This situation is going to be volatile and Duterte’s strategic move to ally himself with China this early could put the Philippines a step ahead of everyone else if the situation unfolds this way.
Duterte’s pivot in Asia has allowed him to be in the best possible position for whatever foreign policy direction the next US president will take in the region. His pivot to Asia was a calculated move towards economic, military, political and cultural integration with its neighbours.
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Source of Clinton and Trump foreign policy:
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