In this post, I will explore the leverage Duterte has over other Asian countries in the battle between China and the USA. I will show how Duterte is using this leverage to place the Philippine in the most strategic position that both avoids an escalation of conflict and creates economic and political gains for the Philippines.
The reality in the Asia Pacific region is that there is a battle between two competing super powers – China vs USA. These two countries see control/ leadership in the Asia Pacific region as key to their economic and political survival. Both the US and China are in need of opening up more markets outside their traditional trade partners in order to sustain their economic growth. Both the US and China see economic growth as essential to their national security and political stability. These two countries are battling to exert their control and leadership in the Asia pacific region in two ways: economic integration and military cooperation.
Military Alliances and the role of the Philippines
The US has 5 key military alliances in the Asia Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, and Thailand). The US view these partnerships as key in its ability to project their influence in the Asia pacific region. The main reason the US announced their strategic rebalance/ pivot to Asia was a view from the US that China was growing ever more assertive in the region. The US policy towards Asia has long been driven by the idea that they cannot allow one single hegemon to take a controlling interest in Asia. The US pivot sought to promote this policy by strengthening its military alliances in the region to show to China that the US is there to serve as a balance of power. At the height of the US pivot to Asia, the US flexed its military muscles even more by strengthening its military alliances in the region further.
China on the other hand does not have the same kind of military alliances in the region as the US has. It also does not have the same kind of naval capability that the US has to be able to project its military influence across the region. Looking at the strategic military alliances the US has cultivated in Asia from China’s perspective, they feel like they are being encircled. This feeling of encirclement has fueled China’s military spending in the last few years as the country tries to match the military influence of the US. To better illustrate the feeling of encirclement China feels in the region, just look at this map of the region and identify which countries have active US military presence (South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore).
On top of the formal US military alliances with South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Philippines and Australia, the US also has an agreement with Singapore allowing the US to station some of their naval units in Singapore regularly. When you look at the map of the Asia Pacific region and where US forces are stationed, it is not hard to understand why China feels threatened by the US.
The military relationship between the US and the Philippines is the oldest military relationship the US has in the region. Although the Philippines is not its strongest military ally in the region, it is probably the most crucial when it comes to countering China’s military expansionism. Yes Japan, South Korea and Australia are stronger than the Philippines but they are not as crucial as the Philippines.
South Korea’s relationship with the US is more geared towards ensuring the US is able to respond to the North Korea threat. In fact South Korea and Japan have long standing disputes that have yet to be resolved causing occasional headaches for Washington. Japan is the strongest military ally of the US however Japan has a pacifist constitution that strictly prohibits it from using force as a means of resolving international disputes and limits its military for self defence only. Although Premier Abe and his party has pushed for a broader interpretation of what constitutes as self defence, the government is still hesitant to fully commit its forces outside Japanese territory. There is still growing debate in Japan on whether or not their military alliance with the US allows them to commit their forces to protect US naval units attacked outside their territory under the doctrine of collective self-defence. Thailand has been criticized for not being too fully committed in their partnership with the US. The Thai government’s strategy has been to remain on the good side of both the US and China without antagonizing the other. This type of strategy really does not help the US that much in countering China. Australia is the only real US military ally that can counter any real Chinese military expansion however its distance from China compared to the Philippines is not as great. The Philippines is ideal for the US because of its strategic position and the fact that the Philippines already has the facilities to support a large US Military presence. The signing of EDCA has given the US access to 5 bases in the Philippines (Palawan, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Cagayan de Oro and Mactan Cebu). The value of the Philippines to US military strategy in Asia is not the strength of the country’s military but its location as a strategic staging point for US military troops in Asia. This is the military leverage Duterte has over US and China. Duterte knows that China feels threatened by the US military strategy of encirclement and he also knows how crucial the Philippines is to the success of the US military strategy. Dutertre is using the strategic military position of the Philippines to get as much concessions as he can for the Philippines from either China or the USA.
Maritime Routes and Economic Security
Another manifestation of the US-China conflict in Asia is in the Economic front and the importance of gaining control of maritime trade routes. The Asia Pacific region and in particular China is one of the fastest growing market in the world and it is home to over half of the world’s population. The Asia Pacific region is also a huge trading partner of the US and Europe and this trade is mostly facilitated through shipping. Part of the reason why the US deploys its Navy around the world is to ensure that it is able to assert its power (if needed) on the world’s major maritime trade routes. If war does break-out, who ever has control over the major maritime trade routes will have strategic advantage over everybody else.
Both China and the US see economic growth as an important part of their national security strategy which is the reason why both these countries try to create as much secure linkages to other major markets. China’s communist party see its legitimacy as tied to China’s continued economic growth which is why it is so important for them to secure markets for China as soon as they can. The US is still struggling from a sluggish recovery and needs to gain access to more Asian markets in order to give its economy a boost. The US showed how serious it is in opening the Asian market further when it pushed for the Trans Pacific Partnership with the Obama administration promoting it as integral to US economic growth and national security. When the US sees Asia as key to its Economic growth, one can reasonably expect them to also secure the means by which economic growth is facilitated – maritime trade. The map below shows you the major trade routes around the world.
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| https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/gallery/Map_Main{560c5a826b9d0f79d9056f2e452d35fface599afff45834a592fa1a3f7fd1a74}20Maritime{560c5a826b9d0f79d9056f2e452d35fface599afff45834a592fa1a3f7fd1a74}20Routes.pdf |
The map below shows the major maritime trade routes that facilitate the trade of crude oil around the world and the volume being shipped per day.
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| https://ift.tt/3lve3fU |
As you can see, there are key maritime trade routes that run through the South China Sea which is crucial to the flow of trade and oil in and out of Asia. The map below shows the South China sea maritime trade routes in more detail.
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| https://ift.tt/3jvyoju |
When you look at the major maritime trade routes in the Asia Pacific region you will immediately see which countries are key to gaining military control and security of the routes (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vitenam, Brunei, Philippines, Japan and South Korea). What is the common to these countries? Most of them have Territorial dispute with China that cover the major maritime trade route. They key area, just by looking at the map is the South China sea. This is the economic leverage Duterte has over China and the USA. Which ever country gets our military alliance will have a key piece in controlling South East Asia’s major maritime trade route. This is the power Duterte has right now and he is using it to his advantage in getting as much as he can for the Philippines.
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