Why is Duterte so popular? Why does he enjoy such a solid support from a majority of the Filipino people? Why is Duterte so popular to the middle class and the poor? These are questions that have bothered so many members of the intellectual class. Richard Heydarian, a self confessed intellectual, recently wrote an article trying to explain Duterte’s popularity. I will show in this post how his attempt at explaining Duterte’s popularity only betrayed his ignorance.
Richard’s main argument is that Duterte’s popularity is not unique to the Philippines. All around the world, populist leaders have gained power and Duterte is just one of the most recent addition to the group which includes India’s Modi, Turkey’s Erdogan, Indonesia’s Jokowi and Russia’s Putin. He argues that the popularity of these leaders is based on their ability to convince people that they are sincere and strong-willed and are bent on dismantling the ancient regime and bringing about a brighter future. Richard says that a key to their success is their charisma and their ability to communicate with the masses even though they fall short on their promises. He said that these leaders are so good at maintaining their image that they enjoy such high approval ratings despite poor economic performance and wide-spread corruption in their governments.
To prove his point, Richard talks about his travels around the world talking to “experts” about the emergence of populist leaders around the world. He also surveyed “western experts” about their opinion of Duterte and came to the conclusion that Duterte is not liked in the west. This confused Richard – why is Duterte so popular among Filipino’s when he is so unpopular in the West. Richard points to a few things that should have made Duterte unpopular or at least not this popular:
- Business confidence is down
- Investors are jittery
- Credit rate agencies are warning of regulatory uncertainty and potential downgrade
- Big-ticket infrastructure projects are in limbo
- Philippine peso is the worst performing in Asia
- Criticism of Duterte’s war on drugs
Looking at Richard’s list of concerns and weaknesses of the Duterte administration, there is a recurring theme – Richard is more concerned about what people outside the country think of Duterte and what international investors think of the country’s economy. Let us take the case of business confidence. When you look at the report he cited it actually says optimists still outnumber the pessimists. It also has this part in the report that Richard conveniently neglected:
Ok so there was a dip in business confidence but there are still more optimists and businesses still plan to hire new people and volume of business activity will be sustained. Not so dire after all. Yes the Philippine peso is weak but is that really bad? Isn’t it good for the over 2 million OFW’s and their families who receive money from abroad? Isn’t a weaker peso also good for our export industry? Richard also cited the September 2016 report from Standard & Poor to prove his point that credit rating agencies are concerned and threatened potential downgrade. He did not however mention Fitch’s investment grade rating for the Philippines in March 2017. I guess he was too busy traveling the world talking to “experts” to notice this bit of news. He also mentioned how big ticket infrastructure projects are in limbo – here Richard did not care to give an example. If you are interested in how the Duterte administration is doing with infrastructure projects just read the news for yourself and you will find no projects in limbo. You can start with the governments web portal for PPP projects here. The last time I heard of Duterte’s project being threatened was when speaker Alvarez questioned the Php 108 Billion auction for the PPP projects to modernize 5 regional airports. His main contention is that private companies involved in projects should have a legislative franchise. He is even planing to introduce a bill that will make this a legal requirement. Is this what Richard means when he said projects are in limbo? Richard this is not limbo, this is how a functioning bureaucracy works. Speaker Alvarez has been accused of being a Duterte puppet yet here he is using his office to challenge a Duterte administration priority? Analyze that smarty pants. I guess by now you get what I am saying. Richard is concerned about Duterte’s image – but he is concerned for the wrong people. He is worried about the opinion of “western experts” from Canberra, Washington and Brussels. He is worried about foreign importers who have crowded out our local industries and now have to deal with a weaker peso. If Richard really wanted to understand why Duterte is so popular, he should ask Filipinos instead. If he is too lazy to do that then he should read literature from people who have actually talked to the Filipino people.
A Pulse Asia survey gives us an idea of what is important to the Filipino people. To understand why a majority of Filipino’s support Duterte, the question should be how is he doing in meeting these urgent personal concerns?
Staying healthy and avoiding illnesses is outside the government’s control but the government can assist in helping the person get back on their feet when they do get sick. So what is the Duterte administration doing about health of the Filipino people? The DOH recently announced the administration’s Goals (read it here) to provide financial protection for the marginalized, ensure better health outcomes and improve responsiveness of the health system.
In terms of job creation, the Duterte administration is planning to embark on a massive infrastructure spending project that will definitely create jobs. The administration’s infrastructure spending program has been praised by many investors (both foreign and local) as it will allow the country to sustain and strengthen it current economic growth trajectory. In short, the massive infrastructure spending will create a short-term boost in employment and sustain employment growth in the long run as it improves the country’s economic prospects. Many of these proposed projects are already on its way and Filipino’s are seeing it. Duterte is also making good on his promise to end contractualization. It may not be a full end to contractualization but this in itself is progress towards a total ban.
In terms of education, the Duterte administration is serious with education reform and spending. In his 2017 budget, the Department of Education received the highest allocation seeing a Php 433 billion increase from 2016. A big part of the money will go to State Universities and Colleges and Duterte is pushing for free tuition in State Colleges and Universities.
In terms of hunger, the Duterte administration signed EO No. 25 adopting a 25-year long-term plan to eliminate poverty and hunger in the Philippines. It also aims to triple per-capita income by 2040 or sooner.
I can keep going but I think you get my drift here. The Duterte administration is responsive to the urgent personal needs of the Filipino people. This is at the heart of his political support, not his charisma alone. Yes Duterte is strong-willed and knows how to work a crowd but to claim that this is the only reason why Filipinos support him is dishonest and arrogant.
Richard accuses Filipinos of being irrational in their support for Duterte. He said that Filipinos who voted and continues to support Duterte are not acting based on the rational choice and utility-maximizing theory of social science but instead with their emotional-personal affinity to their leadership. This narrow minded conclusion is wrong in so many forms. His biggest mistake is that it shows his lack of understanding of utility-maximizing theory. He assumes that people’s conception of utility is the same. Looking at what Richard wrote, to him utility resides in “foreign opinion of my country, international investor sentiment about our economy, the confidence of businessmen, etc.” Yet when Filipino’s were asked about what is personally urgent to them (health, education, jobs, etc) and how the Duterte administration is responding to it – we see a clear story of why they support Duterte.
So, no Mr. Heydarian, Filipino’s are not irrational, they just have a different utility-maximizing function than you and your friends. If you doubt the Pulse Asia survey I cited here, there are similar surveys conducted by the Social Weather Stations that will tell the same story – the Filipino people trust Duterte for a very good reason that people like you just do not understand.
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